CoronaVirus GP in doubt

[BeerBudgetRacing]

Not surprised:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51388857

[John Nesbitt]

This may not be the only shoe to drop. Depending upon transmission rate, we may not see peak coronavirus until spring/late spring in North America and Europe.

To keep things in perspective, zero Americans have died - so far, anyway - from coronavius. By contrast, some 25000 Americans have died of the 'ordinary' flu so far this season.

[BeerBudgetRacing]

Certainly get that. There is a difference between perceived normal and the unexpected.

Just ask Neil deGrasse Tyson when he tweeted that being the victim of a school shooting was statistically low compared to every day events. They slammed him hard. I think he almost lost his job.

[Fred Michael]

The Formula E race in Sanya has already been postponed (hopefully cancelled). This is the correct decision.
Formula E has approximately 1000 people involved with the series and the teams. Formula 1 is at least twice that, probably more.
Potentially exposing those personel and then have them disperse to all corners of the planet is not a very prudent idea.
I expect the FIA to postpone the GP soon.

[John Nesbitt]

Quite correct and prudent.

However, for scale, consider that China is the largest outbound travel market in the world, with 150 million (yes, million) passengers per year. That is an average of roughly 400000 per day. On top of that, there is a concentration of travel around the recent lunar New Year.

[Offcamber1]

Wouldn't the biggest upcoming threat of race cancellation be to the Mexican Grand Prix?

[Purple Frog]

Supposedly around 650,000 have died of AIDS in US since 80's.
675,000 died in US of Spanish Flu around 2018.

These strains of Coronaviruses that can rapidly mutate are serious threats.

If it gets in a city like Lubumbashi (Congo) where medical facilities are already toast, it could have catastrophic results.

[EACIII]

Supposedly around 650,000 have died of AIDS in US since 80's.
675,000 died in US of Spanish Flu around 2018.

These strains of Coronaviruses that can rapidly mutate are serious threats.

If it gets in a city like Lubumbashi (Congo) where medical facilities are already toast, it could have catastrophic results.

Your two examples are not relevant. Think you mean 1918 for the Spanish Flue and medical science has come a long way since then. You have to get a lot closer the 6 feet to someone to get AIDS. There is something else going on here they are not telling us as the cases and death tolls are very minor compared to the yearly season flue. And we don't shut down countries for that

[TimH]

Your two examples are not relevant. Think you mean 1918 for the Spanish Flue and medical science has come a long way since then. You have to get a lot closer the 6 feet to someone to get AIDS. There is something else going on here they are not telling us as the cases and death tolls are very minor compared to the yearly season flue. And we don't shut down countries for that

SARS was a coronavirus. Though this one seems to have a much lower case-fatality rate (and lower than this year's flu), I can see a justification for an abundance of caution in trying to confine it as much as possible to China.

[Steve Bamford]

SARS was a coronavirus. Though this one seems to have a much lower case-fatality rate (and lower than this year's flu), I can see a justification for an abundance of caution in trying to confine it as much as possible to China.

One thing to remember is SARS has come & supposedly gone. They can take the number of cases & divide out the past death rate. This virus is still active so we don't know the death rate until the cycle is complete. The number of deaths continue to rise as does the infection rate.

I will also add that this virus has already killed 560 plus people & the virus does not seem to be under control at all. Sars worldwide was 774.

I'm not a rocket scientist or medical expert, not even close...but I can confidently say this seems worse then SARS based on my limited math skills. At least as the outbreak goes & total number of deaths & its trajectory. Not % wise compared to SARS but infection rate & total number of deaths I would say this one is more serious.

[10rmotor]

I will also add that this virus has already killed 560 plus people & the virus does not seem to be under control at all. Sars worldwide was 774.

Additionally, a lot of this data is from china itself, which should automatically be suspect. I'd say those numbers are in reality much higher.

[Jerry Kehoe]

Until statistics come from the rest of the world regarding the danger potential of this disease it is very hard to believe whatever information that comes from the Chinese government surrounding this. Until then extreme caution should be taken and we should assume the worst case scenario until proven differently. The potential to spread this disease all over the world from a F1 spectator and participant base is staggering if it is really contagious and more importantly if it is deadly. The fact that the whistleblower Doc came down with it and now has died has real implications since he most likely had very good treatment and would likely have taken every precaution!

[EACIII]

And the CDC estimates between 10,000 and 25,000 deaths from the flue in the US alone this season. What am I missing??????

[Purple Frog]

Maybe you are missing the possibility of another 10,000 deaths. Just saying,

[Steve Bamford]

And the CDC estimates between 10,000 and 25,000 deaths from the flue in the US alone this season. What am I missing??????

Dr. Google Says...Each year in the United States, millions of people get the common cold. Adults have an average of 2-3 colds per year, and children have even more. So do the math on that verses CDC death rate.

327 million (people in the US) times 2.5 is 817.5 million colds per year with a death rate at the high end is 0.00003% using 25,000 deaths. Even at 2% death rate of for Coronavirus if everyone gets it only once this that is 6.5 million people in the US alone. Now do you see what you are possibly missing? We don't need viruses like this in the world.

They are trying to eradicate a virus that we have not had in humans before that also has the possibility to mutate. Why would China quarantine tens of million of people if they weren’t concerned about this? Their economy has taken an incredible hit from this more so then we realize. Hong Kong will not allow in people from mainland China. I don’t believe we are hearing anything near the truth of what is happening from China itself.

I'm also not trying to run around being chicken little, I just don't believe everything is as rosy as we are being told & that this isn't something not to be concerned about. This is nothing like the common cold in my opinion.

Just saying...

[hdsporty1988]

Maybe you are missing the possibility of another 10,000 deaths. Just saying,

Or much more, the infection and death rate appears to be growing exponentially. As others have stated, the actual count is probably much higher since this is China.

[TimH]

Dr. Google Says...Each year in the United States, millions of people get the common cold. Adults have an average of 2-3 colds per year, and children have even more. So do the math on that verses CDC death rate.

Steve, colds and influenza are not the same thing. There have been roughly 7 million cases of flu diagnosed this year in the U.S. with about 7000 deaths. However, apparently the case fatality rate is substantial in younger populations.

[TimH]

Pretty good review here:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...care-symptoms/

[John Nesbitt]

Until statistics come from the rest of the world regarding the danger potential of this disease it is very hard to believe whatever information that comes from the Chinese government surrounding this. Until then extreme caution should be taken and we should assume the worst case scenario until proven differently. The potential to spread this disease all over the world from a F1 spectator and participant base is staggering if it is really contagious and more importantly if it is deadly. The fact that the whistleblower Doc came down with it and now has died has real implications since he most likely had very good treatment and would likely have taken every precaution!

If you really want to go down this rabbit hole, consider this: Wuhan, in addition to being the epicenter of the eponymous virus, is also home to a Chinese bioweapons facility (the Wuhan Institute of Virology). These outfits typically work on weaponising, and developing antidotes to weaponised, bugs. The institute has just filed a patent application for a vaccine against coronavius, already developed by Gilead, a US concern.

Best case, it could be just another instance of Chinese theft of western IP. Worst case, ...